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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CALCULATION METHODS WITH ERA-REANALYSIS CLIMATE MODELS’ PROJECTIONS IN WESTERN ASIA, JORDAN

Evapotranspiration calculations are essential in quantifying available water, hydrological modelling, monitoring, and planning for drought occurrence and predicting its indices. Where observations are sparse and data quality is questionable; the need for simplified algorithm is urged. Thirteen models were used to calculate potential evapotranspiration (ETp) on daily and monthly time series meteorological data in Central Jordan-Amman City. Temperature-based, Class A-Pan evaporation (1970-2013), and solar radiation-based methods (1986-1999) were elaborated to estimate the reference ET. Evaluation and benchmarking were performed based on regression algorithm of linearity assumption against the climate models ETs projections of CMIP5-RCP 2.6, CLM-ERAi, Penman Monteith ERA Interim, and Priestley Taylor ERA-CLM. All methods to estimate ET ratify significant trends to the state of local climate. The analysis showed asymmetry between both CMIP5-RCP 2.6 and CLM-ERAi outputs and calculated ETs but inconsistent with Penman Monteith ERA Interim and Priestley Taylor ERA-CLM. Penman Monteith ERA-Interim demonstrates the literature values that vary from 51 to 280 mm/month. Blaney Criddle and Hargreaves temperature and solar based formulas prototyped the potential evapotranspiration (R2= 0.99-0.97) followed by Makkink and Jensen-Haise radiation-based formulas (R2= 0.97-0.96). The remaining models need to be calibrated under the local conditions due to its limitation in the current constants.